Ajo Swell Statistics, November: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ajo that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical November and is based upon 2387 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 44% of the time, equivalent to 13 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only happen 1.9% of the time in a typical November, equivalent to just one day but 18% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 18%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Ajo is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Ajo about 44% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 50% of the time. This is means that we expect 28 days with waves in a typical November, of which 13 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.