Ajo Swell Statistics, March: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ajo that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal March. It is based on 2220 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NW (which was the same as the dominant wind direction). The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 37% of the time, equivalent to 11 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal March but 8% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 8%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Ajo is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Ajo about 37% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 58% of the time. This is means that we expect 29 days with waves in a typical March, of which 11 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.