Air Guling Swell Statistics, November: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Air Guling that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical November. It is based on 2387 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SSE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 18% of the time, equivalent to 5 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal November but 16% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 16%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Air Guling is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Air Guling about 18% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 50% of the time. This is means that we expect 20 days with waves in a typical November, of which 5 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.