Air Guling Swell Statistics, March: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Air Guling that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical March and is based upon 2220 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.
The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 41% of the time, equivalent to 13 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal March but 5% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 5%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Air Guling is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Air Guling about 41% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 37% of the time. This is means that we expect 24 days with waves in a typical March, of which 13 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.