Air Guling Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Air Guling that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal February and is based upon 2102 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 31% of the time, equivalent to 9 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal February but 7% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 7%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Air Guling is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Air Guling about 31% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 37% of the time. This is means that we expect 19 days with waves in a typical February, of which 9 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.