Air Guling Swell Statistics, August: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Air Guling that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal August. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 0.4% of the time, equivalent to 0 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal August. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Air Guling is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Air Guling about 0.4% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 99% of the time. This is means that we expect 31 days with waves in a typical August, of which 0 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.