Ahu Ahu Road Swell Statistics, All Year: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ahu Ahu Road that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical year and is based upon 28044 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 29% of the time, equivalent to 106 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 0.4% of the time in a typical year, equivalent to just one day but 5% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 5%, equivalent to (18 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Ahu Ahu Road is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Ahu Ahu Road about 29% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 62% of the time. This is means that we expect 332 days with waves in a typical year, of which 106 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.