Agucadoura Swell Statistics, Spring: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Agucadoura that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere spring. It is based on 6580 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 31% of the time, equivalent to 28 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 0.6% of the time in a typical northern hemisphere spring, equivalent to just one day but 8% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 8%, equivalent to (7 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Agucadoura is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Agucadoura about 31% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 64% of the time. This is means that we expect 86 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere spring, of which 28 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.