Agucadoura Swell Statistics, November: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Agucadoura that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical November. It is based on 2387 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NNE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 33% of the time, equivalent to 10 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only happen 2% of the time in a typical November, equivalent to just one day but 9% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 9%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Agucadoura is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Agucadoura about 33% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 62% of the time. This is means that we expect 28 days with waves in a typical November, of which 10 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.