Agucadoura Swell Statistics, January: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Agucadoura that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical January and is based upon 2372 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.
The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 35% of the time, equivalent to 11 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only arise 3% of the time in a typical January, equivalent to just one day but 16% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 16%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Agucadoura is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Agucadoura about 35% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 62% of the time. This is means that we expect 30 days with waves in a typical January, of which 11 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.