Agucadoura Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Agucadoura that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February and is based upon 2102 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 36% of the time, equivalent to 10 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only happen 3% of the time in a typical February, equivalent to just one day but 10% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 10%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Agucadoura is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Agucadoura about 36% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 64% of the time. This is means that we expect 28 days with waves in a typical February, of which 10 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.