Agate and Pearl Street Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Agate and Pearl Street that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October and is based upon 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 16% of the time, equivalent to 5 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Agate and Pearl Street is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Agate and Pearl Street about 16% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 14% of the time. This is means that we expect 9 days with waves in a typical October, of which 5 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.