Afife Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Afife that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere winter. It is based on 6931 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the S. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 34% of the time, equivalent to 31 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 3% of the time (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Afife is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Afife about 34% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 64% of the time. This is means that we expect 89 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere winter, of which 31 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.