Afife Swell Statistics, Spring: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Afife that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere spring. It is based on 6580 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 32% of the time, equivalent to 29 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only arise 0.7% of the time in a typical northern hemisphere spring, equivalent to just one day but 7% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 7%, equivalent to (6 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Afife is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Afife about 32% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 62% of the time. This is means that we expect 86 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere spring, of which 29 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.