Afife Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Afife that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.
The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the ESE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 40% of the time, equivalent to 12 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October but 9% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 9%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Afife is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Afife about 40% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 57% of the time. This is means that we expect 30 days with waves in a typical October, of which 12 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.