Afife Swell Statistics, December: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Afife that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical December. It is based on 2457 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 39% of the time, equivalent to 12 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only happen 3% of the time in a typical December, equivalent to just one day but 14% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 14%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Afife is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Afife about 39% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 58% of the time. This is means that we expect 29 days with waves in a typical December, of which 12 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.