Acid Drops Swell Statistics, Summer: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Acid Drops that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere summer and is based upon 7266 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was S, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 47% of the time, equivalent to 43 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal northern hemisphere summer but 4% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 4%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Acid Drops is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Acid Drops about 47% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 0% of the time. This is means that we expect 43 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere summer, of which 43 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.