Acapulquito-Costa Azul Swell Statistics, Autumn: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Acapulquito-Costa Azul that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 7252 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 54% of the time, equivalent to 49 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal northern hemisphere autumn but 20% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 20%, equivalent to (18 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Acapulquito-Costa Azul is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Acapulquito-Costa Azul about 54% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 15% of the time. This is means that we expect 63 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere autumn, of which 49 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.