Abras Swell Statistics, May: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Abras that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal May. It is based on 2200 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the ESE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 0.1% of the time, equivalent to 0 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal May. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Abras is quite sheltered from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Abras about 0.1% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 8% of the time. This is means that we expect 2 days with waves in a typical May, of which 0 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.