Aberdaron Swell Statistics, November: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Aberdaron that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical November. It is based on 2386 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 0.3% of the time, equivalent to 0 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal November. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Aberdaron is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Aberdaron about 0.3% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 36% of the time. This is means that we expect 11 days with waves in a typical November, of which 0 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.