Aberavon Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Aberavon that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February. It is based on 2102 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was W (which was the same as the prevailing wind direction). The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 20% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal February. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Aberavon is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Aberavon about 20% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 65% of the time. This is means that we expect 24 days with waves in a typical February, of which 6 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.