Aberaeron Swell Statistics, Summer: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Aberaeron that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere summer. It is based on 7261 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW (which was the same as the most common wind direction). The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 0.8% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal northern hemisphere summer. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Aberaeron is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Aberaeron about 0.8% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 11% of the time. This is means that we expect 11 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere summer, of which 1 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.