Aberaeron Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Aberaeron that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October and is based upon 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 4% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Aberaeron is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Aberaeron about 4% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 24% of the time. This is means that we expect 9 days with waves in a typical October, of which 1 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.