Aberaeron Swell Statistics, December: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Aberaeron that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical December. It is based on 2457 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 5% of the time, equivalent to 2 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal December. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Aberaeron is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Aberaeron about 5% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 44% of the time. This is means that we expect 15 days with waves in a typical December, of which 2 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.