Abalone Cove Swell Statistics, May: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Abalone Cove that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal May. It is based on 2200 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 0.2% of the time, equivalent to 0 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal May but 5% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 5%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Abalone Cove is quite sheltered from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Abalone Cove about 0.2% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 1.8% of the time. This is means that we expect 1 days with waves in a typical May, of which 0 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.