Aan Swell Statistics, November: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Aan that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal November. It is based on 2387 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SSE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 20% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal November but 18% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 18%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Aan is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Aan about 20% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 48% of the time. This is means that we expect 20 days with waves in a typical November, of which 6 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.